Proposed Scenarios

Threshold 2030 was centered around scenario modeling: an analytical tool used by policymakers, strategists, and academics to explore and prepare for the landscape of possible outcomes in domains defined by uncertainty. This approach asks researchers to consider a range of possible scenarios with explicitly defined prior assumptions.This approach of scenario modeling has several key benefits for predicting on highly uncertain futures:

• By reducing the space of potential futures, researchers can forecast scenario-specific outcomes with greater precision.

• Similarly, this can enable researchers to more effectively evaluate recommendations contingent on specific assumptions.

• Scenario modeling allows us to compare and contrast outcomes, helping us understand how specific assumptions shape the predictions of experts.